Rising olive oil prices? In 2025 the story is different. Olive oil prices are dropping!
UPDATE MARCH 2025: impact on olive oil prices
The article below was originally written in 2023 and updated in 2024. Now, in 2025, it’s time for a new update. This time, the story is different: there is a price drop across all types of olive oil. But why?
Let’s start at the beginning. When it comes to olive harvests, production costs, wages, and innovations, it’s a complex story. Every year we re-evaluate what a fair Gkazas sales price will be. First, we’ll share what factors influence prices. Later in this article, you’ll find a more detailed explanation of how these elements contributed to the rising prices of olive oil:
- Supply and demand: The demand for (high-quality) olive oil has been rising for years. On top of that, the 2021, 2022, and 2023 harvests were lower than usual due to extreme weather and the olive fruit fly. Higher demand combined with lower supply means higher prices.
- Production costs: From more expensive machines to packaging and transportation, these costs have significantly increased, pushing prices up.
- Wages: Labor costs are rising, and this affects the final sale price of olive oil.
- Innovations: Global shortages caused by extreme weather have led to investments in better and more efficient production. Sustainability is also a goal, and much is being invested there as well. While we support this, it does mean additional costs.
Why are olive oil prices falling?
Now that we know what affects olive oil prices, why are they dropping? First, because the global harvest has increased this year. Note: this mostly concerns (virgin) olive oil, which is lower in quality. The highest quality olive oil—organic extra virgin—is still scarce, hard to find, rarely sold, and therefore expensive. Yes, there is a price drop for our organic extra virgin olive oil, but it’s smaller compared to other types.
As a result, the prices of our pomace olive oil and extra virgin olive oil (non-organic) have dropped by up to 19%. Our organic extra virgin olive oil has dropped around 7%. The reason this premium oil drops less dramatically is, again, supply/demand (high demand, slightly increased supply), higher production costs, wages, and continued investments in innovation.
It’s important to point out that this does not mean prices will continue to fall or stay the same. In the past, good harvests allowed producers to build up reserves—a buffer. But due to recent poor harvests, that buffer is much smaller. This year’s improved yield does not guarantee sufficient stock for the months ahead. And after that, we’ll have to wait and see how the 2025/2026 harvest turns out. In short: a price drop now does not guarantee further decline or stability in the near future.
Why did olive oil become so expensive?
Why did olive oil become so expensive? We get that question a lot. It has to do with multiple factors. The first reason is poor harvests. 2022 was already a disappointing year. In a survey by Olive Oil Times involving 4,487 producers from 34 countries, the 2023 harvest was rated a mere 51 out of 100—the lowest score since 2018.
The reasons for this yearly decline in harvests are varied, as shown in the survey. Below are the most influential factors for the disappointing 2023 harvest:
As you can see, the main reasons for poor harvests are high production costs, extreme weather, the olive fruit fly, and labor shortages. Fortunately, these factors don’t always lead to poor yields. On Crete, for example, we are more accustomed to such conditions. We don’t irrigate our trees artificially—they rely on natural rainfall, making them more resilient. The roots grow deeper to find water. Greece, however, has suffered more, with outbreaks of the olive fly and major wildfires due to heatwaves.
Growing demand
Plant-based power! Another major reason for rising prices is the increasing demand for healthy and plant-based foods. In recent years, olive oil has gained popularity as a healthy alternative to other fats. According to the International Olive Council, global demand has been increasing by an average of 3.5% per year.
Global increases in raw material costs
We almost hesitate to say the word “inflation.” But it’s a worldwide issue, and it’s reflected in the price of olive oil. Everything from harvesting machinery to tins, bottles, and transportation has become more expensive. And so, olive oil prices rise. Definitely a big reason!
Innovation
We support it, but it does push up prices. More and more countries and farmers are innovating, investing in sustainable farming and better production methods. This often means less mass production, better quality, but also higher costs.
A fair price…
All of these factors combined have led to rising prices. Farmers producing organic extra virgin olive oil with love and care deserve a fair price—and must also pay fair wages to workers, millers, and packaging suppliers. It’s no surprise that the average price has risen by around 50% recently.
Not all consumers know what organic extra virgin olive oil is, why it’s the best kind, and why it costs more. For many, price outweighs quality. That’s risky, as olive oil fraud is on the rise. You can learn more about the types of olive oil, what organic olive oil is, and why olive oil is healthy.
Rising olive oil prices—where does it stop?
All in all, nearly everyone in the olive oil world—experts, governments, and farmers—predicts prices will keep rising. This is due to lower supply, higher demand, and increased costs. On Crete, we’ve seen nearly a doubling of prices for organic extra virgin olive oil compared to 1–2 years ago. All the more reason to know exactly what the best olive oil is. That way, you know you’re getting value for money—like our 5-liter olive oil tin!
